Public sentiment reflects substantial negativity towards US military involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict, marked by a strong desire for peace and skepticism regarding the motives of US and Israeli leadership. Many commenters express anxiety over potential escalation into wider conflict and criticize government actions perceived as provoking war. While some support actions deemed necessary to counter Iran's nuclear ambitions, the overarching feeling is one of war fatigue and the call for diplomatic solutions.

United States

Iran

Israel

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I don't believe China will ever invade Taiwan unless something very majorly changes with regard to the status quo. Xi Jinping explicitly stated that "Chinese will not fight Chinese". Unllike Russia, which has a long history of invasions and annexations, China's last major military conflict was with... [Vietnam, in 1988, over the Spratley Islands...]
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnson_South_Reef_skirmish)

&gt;Seventh, he reiterated a line from former President Jiang Zemin’s speech on Taiwan from January 1995: “Chinese will not fight Chinese.” On the other hand, Xi would not commit Beijing to abandoning the use of force and said it would “reserve the option to take any necessary measure.” This threat was directed, he said, “at the interference of external forces [code for the United States] and at an extremely small number of ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists and their separatist activities.” Chinese leaders would themselves interpret this vague formulation.

There is a non-zero chance that China invading Taiwan would destroy the Chinese Communist Party. Why would they risk that for a chance at maybe taking over an extremely defensible mountainous island of 20 million people who hate your guts and will destroy all of their semiconductor factories the moment you arrive just to spite you?

Yes, there is a large buildup of military capabilities and even naval blockades. Naturally, like any major power, they want to be unhindered by the wills of any other major power, and both internally and externally they are heavily invested in sending a strong message regarding their position on Taiwan - but, and maybe I'll eat my words, and you can all point at my comment in 2031 and laugh, I don't believe the calculus is such that a rational, self-interested CCP would ever take that risk.

Oxidopamine

[deleted]

Always. A new conflict between smaller countries ALWAYS has the potential to start a domino effect. Once a superpower gets involved it’s almost guaranteed other superpowers will be forced to engage. 

The world is over run by narcissistic men.  Living in peace under such bravado and the inability to compromise to overcome past wrongs is impossible.

greenbigman

If Trump allows the US to get pulled into a war started by Israel, Trump will NEVER take responsibility.

LolaSupreme19

If I were a head of state in the Middle East or Asia, I would be forced to treat the US as a wild card at the moment

With its current leadership, the ‘proportional response’ of the Bush and Obama years cannot be counted on

henryjonesjr83

One thing that bears mentioning is that the GBU-57 munition being proposed for a potential attack against the Fordo nuclear site is unlikely to cause irreparable damage in a single strike. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/19/trump-caution-on-iran-strike-linked-to-doubts-over-bunker-buster-bomb-officials-say?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

It does not appear that any proposed US involvement could be realistically curtailed after a single operation. 

I think it's also worth noting that Russia's media assets in the US (Carlson et al.) are some of the most outspoken voices calling for the US to withhold from getting directly involved in the conflict. To me, that appears to suggest that any US involvement would weaken Russia's, and potentially China's current positions.

All that said, if the US were to get directly involved, Iran's likely response would include attempting to stop shipping through the Straight of Hormuz, which would dramatically restrict the global oil supply and increase Russia's oil export revenue as costs soared. That would be a significant benefit to Russia as it continues its invasion of Ukraine. It's unclear how significantly a destabilized Iran would negatively impact Putin's war efforts.

I am under the impression that Xi Jinpeng has set a timeline to be prepared for a military invasion of Taiwan around 2027. https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2024/05/07/how-dc-became-obsessed-with-a-potential-2027-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan/

I do not believe that the US becoming embroiled in another war in the middle east would shift China's timeline forward. If the US is militarily impotent after that date, China would likely feel emboldened to pursue an invasion of Taiwan.

Herr_Tilke

Currently U.S. involvement would be in the form of tactical airstrikes. For the U.S. that is low commitment and low investment. Easy to justify sitting around a giant table discussing options. 

If in response Iran or a terrorist group like Hamas or Hezbollah attacked U.S. bases in Bahrain, Navy ships in the Persian Gulf, killed American contractors in Qatar, took U.S. hostages from the UAE, etc the U.S. would be drawn into a deeper conflict. 

How China and Russia (both Iranian allies) respond matter too. In the same way the U.S. provided weapons and intelligence to Ukraine to hurt Russia so too would Iran receive support to hurt the U.S..

8to24

It is of course un-Constitutional for the President to unilaterally decide to bomb another country in a clear act of war. Going to war with another country is not the President's decision, it requires Congress to authorize military action against another country.

I'm not sure how Congress would go in this case, Iran poses no threat to the United States, has not attacked us, and has no real way to do so. 

Similar to our losses in Iraq and Afghanistan, we have no ability to occupy the country even if we could conquer it. Iran is twice the size of Texas and has 90 million people. Nation-building is a ridiculous goal.

billpalto

US invades Iran, Russia pushes in Ukraine maybe even moves against nato, Finland probably, china moves to Taiwan… it’s possible!

ScubaW00kie

Over time. 

Regardless of what we think of Iran's theological position, it is clear that they are capable of hitting Israel a few times every day. A land invasion of Iran is not going to succeed. This conflict is going to drag on.   

The biggest beneficiary of Israel's attack on Iran is Ukraine. Russia will eventually have to make a move to protect its weapon supplier.

Sure_Nefariousness56

TACO

Trump Always Chickens Out

Are you waiting for the Tik Tok ban? The trade deals? Ukraine war to end? 

Putin said to not bomb Iran and therefore we are not bombing Iran

TACO remains the standard

RCA2CE

To those who say Xi would never invade Taiwan, 2 things:


1. The more (&amp; more widespread) conflicts the U. S. inserts itself into, the more we'll just end up stretching our forces thinner. China now has the world's 2nd-largest standing Army &amp; the world's largest Navy fleet, they're NOT stretched thin by any foreign conflicts, &amp; Taiwan is literally in their backyard.


2. Taiwan is the world's principal producer of semiconductors, @ 60% of the world's supply. Anyone else out there remember Saddam's motivation for invading Kuwait? Well in this case, the semiconductors are to Xi what the oil was to Saddam. If Xi was to seize control of Taiwan's semiconductor industry he'd suddenly have the world's economy by the b@ll$ in a similar manner. &amp; He knows that with the full force &amp; weight of his military he'd not only crush Taiwan instantly, but he'd also deter the U. S. or anyone else from intervening. 

HansSolo69er

It seems unlikely to me, for two reasons. First of all, the reaction to Israel's attack has been surprisingly (to me, anyway) muted. It appears that Iran is so hated and feared by the other neighboring states that Israel got a quiet green light not just from the US but them as well. Second, neither Russia nor China has any great interest in starting WW3, or even pushing back against a US invasion. They would probably prefer a long, grinding guerilla war that wears the US down, even if it ends in pyrrhic victory a la Iraq.

The_Awful-Truth

Russia, China, North Korea and Pakistan, will not let Americans set some military base so close of them (if USA plan to interfere). Not to mention, USA cannot go on such military campaign with their debt, and the allies (such as canada, Europe and UK) starting to divest their trade, since Trump tariff war them.   
Not to mention that there are already massive protest happening within the USA, engaging the military and the polices against US citizen.   
It would be suicidal for the US to go on such a global war.  
Israel is a liability for the US, draining tax payer money, not to mention Israel blowup potential deals with golf countries. It's time to let go.

TanukiDev

The U.S. should not bomb Iran. If the U.S. had a plan, that would be different. However, it was Israel that bombed to the surprise of America. If the U.S. invades, it needs a lot of planning, not a sudden attack forced by Israel. 

If the U.S. bombs Iran, it should be ready to send a million troops to occupy Iran. That, the U.S. is not ready for. Just bombing the mountain at Fordow is not enough.

At most, the U.S. should sell Israel some 30,000 lb. bunker buster bombs and have Israel modify their C-130's to carry the bunker buster. Israel knows how to jerry rig stuff to make it work.

RB9001A

Very possible. I will say it’s been very amusing watching how Republicans respond to this. It’s highlighted who the Russian plants are and who the AIPAC plants are in their party.

Ozymandias12

First of all, thank you OP for saying “it raises the question” and not erroneously saying “it begs the question.”

To answer your question: **no, attacking Iran would not trigger a larger global war.**

Iran has no real allies outside of their non-state proxies. All of their state “friends” are friends of convenience, not true allies. Iran is run by belligerents who intentionally cause instability throughout the region. No state will stick out their neck to help Iran. The most-likely “friend” would be Russia, but they’re waging a war of their own. It’s gone so poorly that they’ve needed to use North Korean meat shields to fill their ranks and armaments for their eroding stockpiles. Even if they wanted to, they’re not in a position to help Iran.

Also, most Iranians aren’t too thrilled with their regime - especially the young people. How many of them would volunteer to fight the regional military superpower *and* the world military superpower for a regime that doesn’t even have control of their skies above their capital?

As for China/Taiwan, I believe the PLA can only cross the Taiwan Strait safely during two windows per year. Otherwise, it’s not easily navigable and highly risky. Even if the USA got involved in the Iranian conflict and was “distracted,” China still needs to operate within the laws of physics. If it’s not physically possible to safely cross the strait, they’re not invading. Even still, it’s something they’re actively preparing for with their massive shipbuilding operation, so attacking now would definitionally be attacking prematurely. I’m sure they prefer to do things on their schedule, not Iran’s.

BettisBus

In the short term, most likely not. Iran does not have many allies - their Syrian friends no longer control Syria, Hamas already has its hands full, Russia is tied up in Ukraine, and China is more like an arms dealer of convenience than an ally

Meanwhile, the other large power in the middle east, Saudi Arabia, would like nothing better than for Iran to get dunked on. I would fully expect SA to get directly involved in this at some point.

Now you might ask if China might take advantage of this to make moves on Taiwan or the South China Sea, but that also does not seem likely. Europe is kinda sore at Israel regarding the Gaza conflict, and likely would not aid their goals in Iran. BUT, we have seen more European involvement in the Pacific lately, shoring up their SEA, Japanese, and Australian relationships to stand against China. Further, a key Russian ally and supplier being crippled could help to lower the temperatures in Ukraine, allowing Europeans to pay even more attention to the Pacific if need be.

In the long term, a destabilized Iran will probably also destabilize neighboring (also Shia-majority) Iraq, and could lead to the rise of new large, technologically-advanced terrorist cells

theyfellforthedecoy

Two weeks has always been Trump-shorthand for never. So this may be nothing more than sick and twisted global ploy for attention.

napalm_beach

I'm rather optimistic for now. Only Russia is there to help Iran militarily now. Russia, however, can't fight another war now.

China also wouldn't want to find itself in a war against the US.

bedrooms-ds

I'm not sure how the situation could get any worse in the Middle East so far as broadening the conflict goes.

Hamas is pretty much broken as a fighting force, Hezbollah wants no part of anything. Syria is too busy rebuilding itself, Iraq has little to contribute one way or another, while the rest of the Middle East most likely won't get involved. So not much will change if the US attacks Iran, I think. A lot of condemnation, but no military response.

Ukraine is what it is. Russia weakens with every successful Ukrainian strike, but not enough to quit, not yet. If the EU steps up support, the stalemate will continue.

China will continue to saber-rattle, but I don't really think they would try an invasion no matter what, the risks are too great in this era of sea and air drones. Their navy is still too young and inexperienced to be trusted to win the day.

The biggest problems would be in the US, where a simmering civil war is developing. The attacks upon California's economy are unrelenting, the immigrant communities that so many industries across the nation depend upon are being attacked illegally and unconstitutionally, Democrats are being arrested for being Democrats, veterans are at risk of being denied VA healthcare for their political views, corrupt judicial rulings are destroying trust and faith in the system. If Trump bombs Iran, it will have repercussions among his base, which could be the final disillusionment for many. Trump can't afford to risk losing the House and Senate in the midterms, so if his base starts turning against him, he's likely to try to suspend elections. Where we go from there is anyone's guess. The US is a powderkeg of anger, fear, resentment and distrust, just waiting for a trigger to explode into chaos and disarray.

Tliish

USS Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group (CSG) is currently underway in the Arabian Sea. The USS Nimitz CSG is in the Indian Ocean and making good speed to join up with Vinson, and the [USS Harry S. Truman](https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=f7661461505a9ca6&amp;cs=1&amp;q=USS+Harry+S.+Truman&amp;sa=X&amp;ved=2ahUKEwjs_63P2ICOAxX6mokEHXSlD_4QxccNegQIBRAB&amp;mstk=AUtExfC9zoCGPfdyTpQ14JJcGkmQCpgtxYWJhdbe-ZD2-WHw-aBoUDjJ0WLDOEgdgvZnjTVpPQT3ZlfD4kwiuB6aeXFPALlN8-Lh85bKC7zVts-OICaIdD07oVDsbQR75sg3V_ikQQy-SZHCYn92X1AHLCRwhTFVqPX0Vfc9VGJXcAEaOhXcHQCoRmOwhEeLscHSmGhW&amp;csui=3) CSG is in the Red Sea. This weekend is the go date, the deep state has spoken. TACO is being sidelined.

KappaBera

&gt; If the situation in Iran spirals into a larger conflict, it raises the question: could this instability open the door for China to make a move on Taiwan?

No for the same reason US assistance to Ukraine massively disincentives China from invading Taiwan.

China has three strategic choices with an invasion of Taiwan.

1. A preemptive surprise attack on US and Allied forces in the Western Pacific theater. This would massively increase the odds of success short-term, but guarantee that the US joins the war and has the necessary political will to see it through to the end. This is a massive risk, so they probably won't go for it.
2. A soft blockade of Taiwan, but no actual military force other than boarding of commercial vessels bound for Taiwan. A military invasion would follow months or years later after the blockade has attritted Taiwan's ability to resist. This would probably work quite well as long as the US doesn't get involved. If they do, this turns into a near guaranteed loss for the Chinese.
3. An outright military invasion of Taiwan. This again the Chinese probably win, but only if the US doesn't get involved.

The US showing that it will get involved to actively defend allied interests around the world sends a clear signal to the Chinese that that's exactly what we'd do for Taiwan as well.

There is some balance of not being completely overstretched, which is where obviously a ground invasion of Iran would be a bad idea. Showing off your shiny toys does given them data on how they work, but it also shows them that we're not a paper tiger and our tech does work. If I'm China right now, I'm terrified of how fast Israel's F-35 fleet was able to decapitate Iran's air defense network. Having US air assets loitering over Beijing is not something that's on their bucket list for the regime to survive in a long-term conflict.

kormer

Russia would bail on China, Russia historically prioritizes their own survival many time over more than their sworn alliances. 

It would be China and NK versus the entire western world and any of those others who want to be on the winning side. 

Ultimately, the Chinese will likely face a revolt before they are about to fight a full scale war against the world. It’s not pretty over there for their citizens.

couchweather

Vladimir Adolf Trump has now attacked the Iranian nuclear sites. Now expect your fuel costs to almost double in the next month. Idiot war bringer.

Admirable_Pepper_227

I wouldn’t say China will invade Taiwan in 2 years or whatever most people say but I would say there wanting to. 
China realizes that with Russia and now Iran severely weakened they cannot fight a war on their own against the USA and NATO. 
So I think there playing the waiting game to wait for a Disconnection of NATO and the USA or waiting for the United States to be severely weakened before they invade Taiwan. 
A prolonged war like where the USA Militarily gets involved is just what they need that’s if it lasts longer then a few months to a year.
It’s also not helping that trump is somehow managing to Piss off all the leaders around the globe to the point that trade agreements are getting reached with China.

Necessary_Mix2157

As we now know, the "two weeks" thing was Trumpian 5D chess. Hail War President Trump! Hail victory!

2minutestomidnight

Iran doesn't really seem to be in a position to engage in a full-scale war right now. From what I understand, the recent strikes targeted their nuclear facilities after negotiations broke down. I doubt there will be a major retaliation maybe some escalation through proxies or isolated incidents, but that kind of activity has been happening already anyway.

InsideQuestion771

let's start #WW3, #Rusia #China and #NorthKorea promise to stop this dictator #America so called #Democracy but worst than #Nazi! #History will remember #US, there's a lot of line they cross, we can't just stand and let this warmonger country do whatever they want without consequence...

VIsixxx6

let's start #WW3, #Rusia #China and #NorthKorea promise to stop this dictator #America so called #Democracy but worst than #Nazi! #History will remember #US, there a lot of line crossed, for humanity

let's start #WW3, #Rusia #China and #NorthKorea promise to stop this dictator #America so called #Democracy but worst than #Nazi, #History will remember #US, there's a lot of line crossed, there is no nuke weapon facility in iran make this attack become unprovoken assault by american, when tirany is law, revolution is order!!!

Considering the USA has just attacked iran, I feel this is deeply worrying, Iran has vowed to retaliate so far in response to the usa’s involvement,I feel like this could possibly start a domino effect if Iran and the USA get into a war with each other, with china and Russia possibly getting involved, it’s a waiting game now but it’s very worrying and a lot of innocent lives could be lost

gotnocreativenames

No..in a word.  In addition, what the US military did in Iran may just be the biggest deterrent to future potential aggressors around the world because of the demonstration that the US can project military power anywhere in the world on short notice.

The exception is Iran's current terrorist regime which believes they are on a mission from Allah.  All bets are off with that theocracy which often does not act in any sort of rational manner like most of the rest of the world.

mrjcall

Firstly, every single post like this perpetuates fear-mongering whether or not that’s the intention. Ultimately answer is no, it would derail too many countries’ economic growth because they’ll have to pick a side, most of the world still won’t f*** with USA, these are my observations as a citizen of a middle power. Honestly the only time one should worry about global obliteration is when China becomes directly involves and they are far too focused on building their economy to number 1.

PositiveAmphibian127

No. I don't think any war between 2 nations is capable of triggering a global war.

FromFan432

either southeast asia with china attacking taiwan or US and israel attacking Iran

Outrageous-Can-9596

This subheading is typical American media going with the shallow narrative:

&gt;The president is hoping that threatening to join Israel’s strikes will lead Tehran to abandon its nuclear program

Factory-town

It already is kind of a big global war. Iran backs Hamas, which attacked Israel and triggered a new conflict in the Gaza Strip. While also selling drones to Russia, which are then used to terrorize Ukraine, who themselves are being supported by NATO. Iran is also sold military hardware by China, who want to forcefully annex Taiwan, who’s navy is almost on par with the US Navy, and who will certainly clash with the US the second they step foot on Taiwan.

Its why I’m wondering if limited US involvement in Iran, that degrades their military capabilities along with their enrichment program, would ironically go a long way in de-escalating the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.

DJ_HazyPond292

🍿 this one wins but OP you have to keep it updated. reply here with other dramatic threads around reddit too 🍿

TAKEitTOrCIRCLEJERK

The next few days will be existential chaos, but within 72 hours they will have convinced themselves this is what they always wanted.


After a month or so they'll have completely memory-holed that it even happened.

weirdoldhobo1978

&gt; and they have proven any diplomatic option is untenable because they just ignore whatever treaty/deal you sign

Are they fucking serious? Does this mouth breather not remember conservatives cheering Trump when he unilaterally tore up the Iran Nuclear deal during his first administration?

NotAnAlienFromVenus

Give em 3 days to get their talking points and they will all have always supported this.

Shred_Kid

[Someone has unironically blamed Obama for this lmaoooo](https://www.reddit.com/r/Conservative/s/EOJTPUr6Vy). We live in a pisshead society

SheZowRaisedByWolves

Conservatives and GOP can get out of lines for only short period of time and will come back to suck Trump's dick for money. They'll be okay with US bombing Iran by Monday morning.

Pleasant-Ad887

r/Conservative is cheating at this point lmao

A_MASSIVE_PERVERT

&gt; A pretty well-executed ruse. Turns out when everyone reads your tweets you can fool a lot of people

This is the worst timeline lmao.

Teal_is_orange

I read a lot of support for the attack. No matter what he does, they will support no matter what.

LordDarthShader

Trump voters are looking like total idiots. What else is new? 

JetTheDawg

[This War Will Destabilize The Entire Mideast Region And Set Off A Global Shockwave Of Anti-Americanism vs. No It Won’t](https://theonion.com/this-war-will-destabilize-the-entire-mideast-region-and-1819594296/)

Mecha-Jesus

They’re already following the narrative. One user commented “ a few missiles and bomb prevented a terrorist state from getting nukes. I see this as a win”.

maximusbrown2809

Those idiots think we drop a bomb and that’s the end of it. 

The rationalizing they do, every. single. day. is otherworldly. 

Truly gargling the orange doofus’ balls 24/7, no matter what.

Sidney_Godsby

These fucking idiots are yelling at each other and trying to justify this by saying it’s not an act of war and that Trump has full authority to do this, without congressional approval. 

If Iran fucking bombed us in the same exact way, you sure as shit know they would all be calling it an act of war. 

These people are just so incredibly stupid. It’s terrifying how many of them are now in charge of our fate as a species.

qukab

Trump can kill its own people and those guys will cheer him on. When you are in cult, nothing your great leader does is a crime.

Urwake

It's already happening in real time. You can see the sentiment become this has been a great move from Trump

Le_Champion

To be clear, the entire Trump admin doesn't want to bail Europe out, but we are going to bomb Iran because Israel asked really nicely? 

I don't even believe these are real people anymore. Like genuinely the entire subreddit needs to be a psyop.

bobbymcpresscot

Maga Conservatives always blindly support their king.

Oceanbreeze871

I'd love to see the warmongers keep their word and deploy to the frontlines before anyone else

After-Bumblebee

Came across this gem: "There was also the earthquake near one of Iran's nuclear sites. It's possible it may have been a bomb test. I wouldn't be surprised if it was; and if it was, then we has no choice but to strike now instead of after the two weeks."

Like, is it theoretically possible? Yes. But if it was, wouldn't Israel and the US be screaming about this from the rooftops?  Also isn't testing a nuclear weapon kinda hard when your top scientists and military leaders are being killed before they can show up to work?

SnowingRain320

I monitor that sub a lot as my pulse on the right.

3 Weeks Ago - We voted for no new wars! Stop funding (((Israel))).  America First!

2 Weeks Ago - Why won't Iran make a deal with Trump? Are they stupid?

1 Week Ago - IDK, sounds like we might have to bomb Iran to teach them a lesson.

Tonight - KAW KAW Motherfuckers!  That is freedom making peace bombs in your face!  USA USA!  We won, now peace!

Tad0422

This is always going to be the same, they'll just fall in line like the npcs they are.

t850terminator

I thought we didnt want Kamala because we didnt want forever wars or inflation? 

Cause its only 6 months in and we are already bombing another country.

babypho

&gt;diplomatic option is untenable because they just ignore whatever treaty/deal you sign.
 
... they were following the agreement they made with Obama, until trump tore it up in 2017 and said "let's do the same thing but with my name on it" and they told trump to fuck off. They STILL kept to that agreement because multiple other nations signed it. **WE** are the assholes who ignore what treaty/deal is signed. Just like with NAFTA. Just like with the trade agreement trump signed with NA during his first term (that he called a POS). JUST LIKE EVERY FUCKING TRADE DEAL HE DESTROYED WITH TARIFFING THE ENTIRE WORLD.
 
Just amazing how fucking confidently fucking stupidly ignorant these dipshits are. Just armchairs secs of state being the dumbest mfers this side of the Atlantic. Fuck.

Bored_Amalgamation

Those who are complaining about Donald will be downvoted, removed and banned. Within an hour the sub will be back to normal with usual fellating of Donald.

Barack_Odrama_007

&gt; Trump is being strategically vague because...


Because he doesn't know what he's doing and is just jumping on whatever course of action feels good/he's sold on. I don't think the US has a plan for what to do next. Just roll the dice and see what happens.

Mysterious-Tax-7777

Just yesterday I wrote a comment saying tail was wagging the dog when it comes to US-Israel relationship and what happened afterwards further proved this point.

Comment about the Middle East's hatred for the US is mostly about Israel is right. The greatest destabilizing force of the region *is* Israel because of what they have done and things that have been done to keep them safe for decades. 

They've bombed 4 countries around them in the last year and invaded 3 of them, slaughtered tens of thousands of innocents, starved children and massacred help workers trying to save lives. And every time they faced consequences of their actions, they just doubled down on brutality.

People act as if Iran would have immediately launched nuclear weapons if they produced them. North Korea, perhaps the single most belligerent country on the planet, has nuclear weapons and all they have done is run their mouth. Because even they know that nukes can't be used without risking annihilation.

What nukes actually would've changed is they would've prevented Israel from being able to attack Iran whenever they wanted. The only reason for this war is that Israel's hegemony and future imperialistic plans were threatened and nothing more.

jay_alfred_prufrock

Looking at some of their profiles is incredibly funny

pawksvolts

soneforlife

It’s Insane that Trump has done an absolute speed run of Bush’s bs WMD campaign in a weeks time. Absolutely no evidence provided that Iran was ‘weeks away,’ other than Netanyahu, the same guy who has been saying they are ‘weeks away’ every month since the 90s. This is literally Iraq all over again, but with a county 2x as big and with a much more robust military. All these Conservative chuds moved the goalposts immediately, repeating the same dumb talking points their parents were using in 2003. Fuck these guys.

bob_scratchit

The top post there right now says “Peace through Strength” - it’s so on the nose for 1984’s “war is peace” slogan I cant even believe it.

Larry-Man

These people always freak out about "being brigaded" when during 2020/2021 you had people like Joe Rogan, Tim Poole, Elon Musk, etc. complaining about how ALL speech should be welcomed with conservative parroting that ALL views were welcome in the marketplace of ideas. Calling them hypocrites at this point is just redundant.

JohnnySack45

Man if only we had reached an agreement to limit their nuclear program like 10 years ago and followed through on it…maybe this whole mess could have been avoided. Oh well, who could have seen this coming! Hindsight 20/20 and all.

PositionNecessary292

In old enough to remember when like 65% of conservatives said they wouldn’t vote for Trump if he was convicted of his felonies…

/u/Ok-Warning-7494 (OP) has awarded 2 delta(s) in this post.

All comments that earned deltas (from OP or other users) are listed [here](/r/DeltaLog/comments/1lfofzz/deltas_awarded_in_cmv_israels_attack_on_iran_was/), in /r/DeltaLog.

Please note that a change of view doesn't necessarily mean a reversal, or that the conversation has ended.

^[Delta System Explained](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/deltasystem) ^| ^[Deltaboards](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/deltaboards)

DeltaBot

TLDR; Israel did strike Iran to remove the nuclear threat, but that doesn't exclude that it wants the US to actively help it.  
  
You are correct that Iran's strategy for decades has been to "flirt" with a nuclear bomb as leverage. However, Israeli intelligence over the past month has obtained evidence that they're breaking out of that pattern and taking active steps that they hadn't before towards constructing a nuclear device in a short amount of time. Whether you believe them or not is up to you, you have no way to corroborate or deny, but consider that thousands of people had to work for months to obtain this information and it's very hard to keep a blatant lie secret at that scale.

However, you are wrong that Israel cannot significantly damage the Iranian nuclear program. They have taken out a crucial plant to process uranium gas into metal, which already takes the Iranians months if not years away from constructing a bomb. While they cannot easily take out the underground facilities at Fordow easily with a few MOP bombs, they can batter it with smaller bunker busters for weeks until it's destroyed. 

Everyone focuses on the idea that Israel is using the US in its plans, but nobody is discussing the very real possibility that Trump and the US are using Israel as leverage in its negotiations. A nuclear Iran is a threat to the US and something that all presidents have promised to prevent. The ideal outcome from Trump's POV is a negotiated settlement where Iran hands away all its highly enriched uranium, Fordow is blown up, and the ability to enrich uranium is taken away. Normally the US would have had to apply the military option itself, in this timeline Israel is and Israeli civilians are paying the price.

The-_Captain

&gt;It is clear that Iran does not want a conflict with the United States.

Not until they have nukes, at least.  

You keep talking about the Islamic Republic of Iran like it is a rational actor, when it isn't.  This is a cult of Islam that believes that the Mahdi will not come back until the blood of the last Jew has been spilled.  The Ayatollah has "foreseen" Israel's destruction in 2040, and they erected a Countdown Clock in Tehran.  Are you one of those people who thinks it's cute when they shout, "Death to America"?  

If destroying Fordow pushes back Iran's nuclear timeline by five years (more likely by twenty, you've overestimated the number of nuclear storage facilities Iran has that Israel doesn't know about), then let us push back Iran's nuclear timeline by that amount of time.  Buying time makes a difference; Stuxnet bought time, and it made a difference.  This attack has been about destroying Iran's ability to go nuclear.  By any amount of time, that is justified.

It's also very expensive to have a nuclear program, especially if your facilities, equipment and supplies keep getting destroyed.  The alternate strategy is to bankrupt Iran, which already is economically weak.

XhazakXhazak

I think it can be both. Israel absolutely wants the US to be involved militarily in a war against Iran.

That said, it quite clearly has demonstrated the ability to meaningfully degrade Iran's capabilities. It has systematically killed its highest-ranking leadership, nuclear scientists (which frankly, I find pretty wild to treat as valid military targets), and military installations.

To say that the above actions would not have any deterring effect on Iran's ability to develop a bomb is probably inaccurate. It may not be a death blow but it certainly pushes the clock back.

I think Netanyahu went into it thinking:

1. If the US gets drawn in, excellent
2. If not we still get to wreak havoc and distract from my own legal troubles. In which case, still excellent.

Bodoblock

&gt;(“stop fucking with us; we can build a nuke pretty quickly”)

It's astounding that anyone can look at the situation and think that Iran has always just been playing defence against malevolent Israel.

Iran's regime does not behave in a pragmatic matter. Israel has no territorial claims on Iran, and Israel enjoyed good relations with Iran before the nutjobs took over in the Islamic Revolution. Yet Iran has wasted billions funding proxy groups on Israel's borders for no conceivable reason other than to put in place the elements Iran thinks are needed to help it fulfill its purely ideological need to annihilate Israel.

Israel says that its intelligence indicated that Iran was getting to close to being able to build a bomb. Given that Iran's regime is incredibly deeply infiltrated by Mossad, why can't that be true? 

Consider, if you can bear to, Israel's perspective. No country would tolerate an incredibly hostile neighbor from developing nuclear capabilities if it can do something about it. Sure, there used to be an agreement, but Israel has far, far more to lose than any other country if Iran gets the bomb. Enrichment is the hard part. There is no peaceful purpose for Iran to enrich to the extent that it has. Iran goes to great lengths to kill my people, and vows to do more. Does it really take a genius to connect these dots?

You're getting uncomfortably close to "Jews are the ones starting the wars" by trying to ascribe underhanded, "scheme-y" motives to Israel. Yes, Israel started this military escalation, but it is the end results of decades of hostility, plus a new urgency according to Mossad's recent findings. And they had to have understood they were probably going to do it alone. Trump is notoriously fickle and unpredictable and the Americans, even Republicans, in general have little appetite for war in the ME.

The recent events make the most sense when you interpret them at face value.

yallakoala

I think you are missing a couple things here:

For starters, a *rather lot* of the delays to the Iranian nuclear program have been the direct result of both Israeli espionage (Stuxnet a prime example) and international sanctions  / non-proliferation focus.

It’s not that Israelis were crying wolf - the actions of the world *did* slow them down.

Furthermore, you’re kind of neglecting the fact that Iran is actively waging proxy wars via Hezbollah &amp; Hamas against Israel - its funding and arming the entities.

For Israel, this is like big time existential threat. You have a nation basically funding terrorist - committing the worst attacks since Sept 11 - while also pretty clearly moving toward a nuke and saying it wants to annihilate Jews.

There isn’t 4d chess. They have simply come to the basic calculation that fighting terrorists with a clock to nukes is not a long term solution and ultimately the root issue has to be solved.

What Iran wants is to project power in the Middle East - and its enemies are western aligned Israel and Saudi. It think it can fragment the region and alliances though proxy wars.

No, it doesn’t want direct war with the U.S. - but it is banking on the U.S. (and rest of world) not calling it on its BS by low level regional aggression. 

Saudi doesn’t want a full scale war, Europe wants its oil and not to piss off its sizable Muslim minority, China and Russia don’t want the region being overly western aligned. All of that is a recipe for nothing ever getting resolved.

For Israel, it’s a vote of non-confidence in international institutions (particularly the EU and UN) which have demonstrably failed on all dimensions here. 

Especially after watching the world care so much with Palestinian terrorists are struck but not at all when Yemeni are. The bias is bonkers and accountability zero, so why should they care?

I think the timing here was forced by the potential of an incoming half-asses treaty by a world looking for short term end to immediate Sabre rattling rather than true fixes / accountability.

Would Israel like the U.S. to be involved? Sure, it could use bunker buster bombs to really clear out some of this. But I think Israel’s perspective is a simple must act to sufficiently delay their nuclear program *and* to disrupt their top military brass and financial funding of the proxy wars on the border.

Kman17

US is already involved providing rearmament and C2 to the Israelis.


 Facts are the rest of the middle east is tired of the Iranian regime standing in the way of a greater peace for the region. Their are multiple sects of Islam in the middle east and much of the middle east is of the oppositional sect Sunni Islam , they are glad to see Iran knocked down a peg as it is the only true shia power, once Iran is taken out a pan Arabian league can be formed with Saudi-Arbia, Turkey, and even Israel forming prominent membership. Truly Iran is the primary issue in the region for greater peace, they are set on elimination of the Jewish state.
If the other countries had an issue they would have collapsed on top of israel like a ton of bricks

Blairians

The nuclear threat is the justification, but Israel’s attack is to confront the constant threat they face from Iran and its proxies. Iran funds, trains, supplies, and strategizes with Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, (previously Syria), and Iraqi Shia militias to attack Israel. Those proxies are all tremendously weakened now, which provides Israel with a unique opportunity to confront Iran. Hezbollah in particular was a major threat to Israel considering their close proximity, organized military ranks, and vast arsenal of rockets. Degrading Iran’s military capabilities now offers the chance to stymie the ability of these proxies to re-arm. Israel is seizing the opportunity to completely reshape the next generation of geopolitics in the Middle East with or without the US directly joining in.

AldoTheApache45

This is provably wrong by logic. If as you say Israel's only goal was to draw the US into the fight, why then would they not suffer more damage, more quickly? Plainly THAT is the SINGLE new motive brought by the war. Anything else -- such as Israel's ability or inability to destroy Iran's nuclear infrastructure was known known before the war. As it is, the case for US involvement is pretty weak, and more importantly, predictably weak, thereby completely undermining your thesis.

Tripwir62

Trying to draw the US into a war would rely on trying to convince Trump to do a thing and rely on him to follow through.  I cannot imagine any coherent plan that would rely on Trump performing a specific action.

armchair_hunter

You “don’t believe Iran actively developing nuclear weapon”?

So everything they say and all the UN reports and all the watchdog reports and again - what they say. All of that not enough for you?

Is it really about the facts or intentional blindness?

Edit: typo

ShakedBerenson

&gt;It is clear that Iran does not want a conflict with the United States

This isn't clear at all.

Trump literally told Iran's leader to unconditionally surrender. If Iran doesn't want a conflict with the United States, how come its leader hasn't surrendered yet?

Adorable_Ad_3478

I think anyone that lives in the region would disagree. Iran has been trying to take over the area via proxies since Sadam fell. Asad would still be in power had Israel not taken out Hezbollah. Taking out Hezbollah also freed southern Lebanon.

Apprehensive_Fill_35

Here are other alternatives to consider why Israel attacked Iran


1. Israel claims Iran was behind October 7th.


2. Israel considers Hezbollah as Iranian militia and was attacked by Hezbollah since October 8th until recently.


3. Israel considers the Houtheis as Iranian militia and were attack by the Houthies at least once a week prior to this attack. Sending Israelies to shelter every single time


4. Israel is at huge risk of Iran getting nukes, as you can see, Iranian missiles can hit Israel.


Not everything revolves around the US. Israel can not take all of this and just stay there and wait to be eliminated. Israel would attack eventually even if Iran did not have nukes at all.

FreddieMoners

I disagree that Israel's efforts are reliant or based on pressuring the US to engage from an offensive perspective.

Iran for 20 years has had all of one active nuclear power plant . . . think about that . . . and all along all their efforts have been about nuclear energy . . . 

There is zero need or use to have enriched uranium to 60% for a nuclear power plant - that only makes sense from a military potential perspective.  Maybe they can use it as is for a dirty bomb - heck, they could even pass along such a dirty bomb to their alliance of resistance partners (ie. the Muslim Terrorists of the World)

Does anybody in this world want or will feel comfortable with Iran having a nuclear weapon?

If Iran were to achieve a nuclear weapon - there is no going back!  They attain a level of freedom (by nuclear deterrence and threat) - even from sanctions and other pain that can be applied.

If it requires the USA to use our stealth bombers and POV bombs over 1-2 days of bombing to assure Iran's nuclear capabilities are completely destroyed - I am all for that.  This is not at all the same thing as an invasion.  The risk is simply whether their alliance of resistance (aka, partner terrorist groups) will try to attack US bases in the Middle East?  But they've been doing that on and off for years already.

Let Israel finish off all military sites, all weapons-capable making sites, etc. . . in Iran.  They don't need the USA to do that for them.  I don't even think Israel will ever even need to put boots on the ground (the only exception to that would be the USA not dropping the POVs and forcing Israel to destroy Fordow from the ground versus the air).

The only time of 100% confirmation of Iran's nuclear weapon completion will be after Iran has a nuclear weapon - once that happens, its too late and nothing can be done.

generallydisagree

I think you're thinking in the right lines but haven't quite hit the mark. A few more relevant facts:

1. The attacks happened 2 days before negotiations that were likely to lead to a new nuclear deal.

2. Some of the first few attacks specifically targeted Iranian negotiators

3. Iran has been used as a boogeyman by Netanyahu for years already

4. Netanyahu is barely clinging onto power thanks to the "war" in Gaza. But this is getting less effective over time 

5. Western sentiment was turning against Isreal because of war crimes in Gaza.


So with these additional facts we can see that it's a "kill a flock of birds with one missile" move

Western governments and populations get distracted from the probable genocide in Gaza by a war with a country most don't get along with.

Negotiations that are likely to improve relations between Iran and the west get cancelled.

A deal that might have significantly reduced the threat Iran poses (at least in public perception) gets cancelled.

The Israeli people are shown a new large threat, and a change in government during such a crisis would be unthinkable.

Drawing the US into the conflict would probably be a nice bonus for Israel, but I doubt it was the primary objective. Trump is simply not reliable enough to count on that.

silfin

The Israelis and their allies have been claiming that Iran was several years, months or whatever away from having the bomb. But what you're forgetting is that for all those years Israel and the US have been actively hampering their development. Constant assassination , hacking did buy the Israelis time. The reason Israel attached is not because Iran had it already, but because if they would have developed it, the Iranians would then be able to terrorize Israel via it's proxies (Hezbollah, Houthis , Hamas and other parties notably in Iraq) willy nilly without any sort of repercussions. Israel famously destroyed Iraqs nuclear program (huge relief other wise it would have fallen into ISIS's hands) and they also destroyed Syrian nuclear sites (also huge relief). As far as I can tell, it's Israelis who are dying , not American soldiers. I doubt boots on the ground is what Israel wants. Your hypothesis is flawed because it discounts the true intentions of Iran. 

DaleRod2468

I struggle a bit with the confidence you say all this. There might be very very few people on the world that really know what the SoA of their weapon program is. And probably no one else than the Israelis know what options they have against Iran. 

About the nuke program: The IAEA said that Iran brazenly broke their duties from the contract. macron said that France has also info that Iran pursues and is very close to the bomb. At the same time, others disagree on this. Which might mean that their is a lot of espionage and counter spy activities going on. In the end, it’s one of the most important geopolitical questions to solve. 

If it comes to Israel, they prepared ~10 years for this operation. It’s very hard for me to believe that the agencies that came up with the beeper operation cannot come up with a solution to this problem. It’s also steep to believe that Bibi would authorize an operation that can only succeed if the regime flips or US joins, means if he gets help from the outside. You set yourself up for a major failure. 

Unless you have some top secret info that the rest of us don’t have, most of your assumptions are mostly not supported with data; while I think that your argument is logical, it’s simply not rooted in reliable facts. And I think that’s not only for you a struggle, I think currently most security and military experts as well as journalists and people face the same pickle.

Mcwedlav

I agree that stopping Iran having a nuclear weapon cannot be the only reason. From my limited perspective I think the timing of the attack is interesting as there has been open worries of them creating a weapon for as long as I can remember. And yet just a few months back the director of national intelligence in the US testified to congress that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon. So why the sudden panic?


As far as I can see, and it is a super complicated and confusing situation, there are a few key players all of which seem to have quite extreme views. 


Firstly there is the current Israeli administration, let's be clear in the fact that they have been involved in more direct conflict than any Israeli administration for a long time. I am sure that they feel somewhat emboldened by the lack of international action against their more questionable recent milatary actions, things such as laying siege to Gaza, occupying parts of Syria and Lebanon. The Hamas attacks a couple of years ago were horrible on many levels, but in some senses I think this has been a convenient catalyst for the current government to be bolder militarily. There are clearly many important voices within Israel that hold the view that Israel is destined to control the area of Judea, and that it is a holy war. This line doesn't sell well internationally, but reasonings such as stopping Iran to get a nuke will always be harder to go against. To think that what politicians say publicly is mainly honest is incredibly naive, it is an act of managing and playing with public sentiment.


Secondly Iran also has a major role to play in the ills of the middle east. There has been a lot said of their proxies, and I think it is fair that they are listed as a state that supports terrorist organisations. They are playing a regional power game, and it is convenient for them to work alongside groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. The events of the last few years have not happened in a vacuum, and there has been consistant work to undermine the state of Israel. I am sure that on a public level there is more support for these actions because of the Israeli heavy handed approach, and this will lead to more young men being willing to risk their lives to harm the state of Israel. All of this is played on by Iran. The timing of the Hamas attacks over 18 months ago came at a point where Saudi Arabia and Israel were close to normalising their political relationship. This would help slowly diminish Iran's position in the region. So provoking a strong reaction from Israel worked well to isolate them from their regional neighbours.


Thirdly the USA. I feel there are three main points of interest when it comes to the middle east and Israel. Firstly the moral side, and this is true of most places worldwide. I think many people get emotional about this topic because of the holocaust. It is one of the most horrible atrocities in the history of human civilization. Personally speaking my grandmother lost her whole family in Auswitz, she was lucky to escape that fate and I am lucky to exist. The holocaust itself makes it hard for many people to think rationally on subjects relating to Israel, and many politicians play on this knowing that they will have more support for milatary action if they bring up this terrible story.


But beyond this there are other factors at play in the US. It is hard for us in Western Europe to understand the strength of the church over the pond, we live in a mainly secular society, but this is not the case in America. This is a major factor as to why we get so confused as to how you have chosen your president. The current Trump administration had a strong religious backing, and has strong links to the Evangelist movement, which certain important factions believe that we are living in end times and that Jesus Christ will be reborn (and thus they will be saved) if Judea is controlled by Israel. For them as well this is a holy war and thus there is this pressure on the government.


And finally there is money, which is lf course a major factor for all three countries and the region as a whole, but especially important to understand American motivation in the region. The middle East has a lot of material wealth, and it would be convenient if they had more influence in the region. This can be achieved by helping their allies, and it is a major factor in why they allow such bullish behaviour from Israel. Israel and the US most definitely share a common enemy in Iran, although their reasons are different. Iran has been a thorn in America's side regionally for a long time and if their influence becomes limited then it will of course benefit American companies' interests as well.


TLDR; It's complicated, lots going on, don't take anything at face value!

Successful-Yam7271

Even Ali Khamenei doesn't deny they're close to nuclear weapon and what they want to do with it 💀


Anywau, do you realize Israel attacked Iran's nuclear program for years? and Iran is under heavy sanctions. Ever heard of Stuxnet? 🙄


Also you don't go to a war you planned for 20 years without a plan and it's obv Israel has one. Also you aren't even aware what kind of weapons Israel has 

nnooaa_lev

Your assertions about Iran's nuclear program (or the supposed absence of one such) are wrong.

Read the story about [Stuxnet](https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-real-story-of-stuxnet), a computer worm developed by the Mossad (with assistance from NSA) to destroy an Iranian nuclear weapon facility 15 years ago.

VikingFjorden

Everything you said is a maybe except two facts - 1: Iran is a dangerous, anti-US v terrorist state and 2/Iran is getting very close to a nuke

Israel isn't the one pulling the U.S. into Iran war. The Iranian regime desires to be the first terrorist state with nukes is

YnotBbrave

Iran has stated they want to remove Israel from the earth.  Israel can stand its ground and destroy Iran because if they don't it's a threat to Israeli existence.

Rare-Psychology-3527

&gt;Israel does not have the ability to inflict significant damage to Iran’s nuclear program

This is incorrect. Israel has destroyed all centrifuges in Natanz, one of Iran's main enrichment sites. It has attacked myriad other sites across Iran's widely dispersed nuclear program. It has eliminated 11(+) senior nuclear scientists. In total, this is absolutely significant damage to any nuclear program.

&gt;Even if they had the capability to destroy Fordow, the enriched uranium is almost certainly spread out across the country

They do have the capability to destroy Fordow, but none of the strategies for doing so are easy. They can pummel it with dozens (perhaps hundreds) of standard bunker busters, which could take days or perhaps even weeks, essentially drilling a hole into the mountain, or they can deploy a ground force. Both of these are likely low probability of success strategies, but we've seen crazier things work for Israel. 

Enriched uranium being spread across the country is speculation. Even if it were, given the massive intelligence penetration, it seems unlikely that these wouldn't already be tracked, or in consolidating them latter would not be detected. I don't think this is a particularly compelling argument. 

&gt;If Iran’s entire nuclear program including the uranium were destroyed, it could still develop a bomb in under 5 years.

Reconstruction of the nuclear program is possible, but the 5-year time horizon is speculative (it could be more, it could be less). It's worth noting that it in 1981 Israel destroyed Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor while it was being built. The expectation was that this would delay Saddam Hussein's nuclear program by 10 years but that it would ultimately be resumed. It never ended up being resumed. Either way, setting the program back to a place where it would require 5 years of development would provide ample opportunity for Israel to continue to interrupt it. 

&gt;So why would Israel attack Iran? 

Iran has been the leading sponsor of every terrorist group surrounding Israel in a "ring of fire" strategy.  Iran presented an ongoing military threat poised to potentially develop the world's most powerful weapon, and given that the military landscape has shifted such that Israel could attack without risk of military response from Hamas, Hezbollah, or Syria, and given that Trump is not inclined to stop them, and given that the IAEA reported the day before that Iran had violated their NPT obligations, the moment was opportune. 

&gt;hoping Iran would retaliate in a manner that forced the US to enter the conflict

This assumes that Israel was hoping for major retaliation. Aside from suicide being completely contrary to Israel's strategy, in the first hours of the attack Israel crippled Iran's ability to meaningfully respond by taking out ballistic missile stores, launchers, leadership of the air force and other military heads.  

&gt;My view can be changed by concrete evidence of Iran’s nuclear weaponization and/or an explanation of how Israel thinks this bombing campaign will prevent Iran from pursuing a nuke without US involvement.

Iran was enriching uranium to 60%. For civilian purposes, as they claimed, enrichment to 3% is what is required. 20% for medical research, and that's only needed in smaller amounts. The *only* reason to enrich to 60% is to allow for shortened window for enrichment to weapons grade (90%). There is no civilian purpose that requires 60% enrichment, let alone hundreds of kilograms of highly enriched uranium (enough for 9+ bombs, per IAEA) if not to facilitate a fast transition to weapons nuclearization. 

US involvement is being discussed because Israel is *winning* and because Israel/US/(the West)'s interest align in removing any possible nuclear threat from Iran. Trump waited on the sidelines for days before even discussing American involvement, the only need of which is for B2s to drop MOPs to more quickly take out Fordow, which is a (very) nice-to-have, not a need-to-have.

January_In_Japan

US should’ve attacked iran long ago. Their troops need experience in modern warfare for the future war China poses . Sooner or later US troops will be involved in a war with China. 

Also do you really think US would really allow an extremist government like Iran enrich uranium for peaceful and deterrent purposes to weapons grade  ? Arab states and turkey might be “supporting” Iran through statements right now . But crown prince has said multiple times if Iran gets a nuclear bomb so will they . Turkey will as well . US doesnt want a nuclear arms race in Middle East out of all places. Arab states don’t trust Iran as much as Israel . Don’t forget Iran armed Houthis against Saudi Arabia backed forces in a war the killed more than half a million .

What I do know is that Iran chants death to America and Israel even before Gaza and that they funded multiple “paramilitary” groups. Might not have been this month but US regardless of Israeli action would’ve attacked Iran sooner or later

Own-Bank5855

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